In the 23 seasons I've participated in fantasy football, I've seen it all.
I've seen dominant teams go wire-to-wire and win the championship. I've seen dominant teams get bounced out of the playoffs unceremoniously. I've seen teams sneak into the playoffs only to get hot at the right time and win the whole thing.
There's really no special sauce here other than you can't win a title if you don't make the playoffs. There's nothing worse than having the hottest team in your league over the final weeks of the season, only you're playing in the consolation bracket.
I'm currently in a six-way tie (we're all 4-5) for the final playoff spot in one of my 12-team leagues. The best record in the league is 6-3 and the worst record is 3-6. There's four games remaining in the regular season so all possibilities are mathematically still on the table.
This is fantasy football in a nutshell. There's really not much separating us.
I know this team could easily be 6-3 if it weren't for a couple of close calls. It could also be 3-6 or worse too, but that doesn't matter anymore. What matters is what we do with each of the next four weeks.
Forget style points. Make the playoffs.
Follow me on Twitter @UTEddieBrown if you have questions throughout the week.
Here are my best bets for Week 10:
L.A. CHARGERS AT OAKLAND
Obvious starters: Hunter Henry (LAC), Keenan Allen (LAC), Josh Jacobs (OAK), Darren Waller (OAK).
Who to start: QB Philip Rivers (LAC) faces a secondary that has allowed 11 touchdown passes the last three games. RB Melvin Gordon (LAC) has scored a touchdown in three straight games with an average of 17 total touches. RB Austin Ekeler (LAC) has 31 receptions in the five games since Gordon returned. WR Mike Williams (LAC) maintains his flex value with at least three receptions in seven straight games and 69 receiving yards in four of the last five games. WR Tyrell Williams (OAK) maintains WR3/flex value despite not scoring a touchdown for the first time in six games this season.
Who to sit: You might think this is a decent matchup for the Chargers D/ST, but it isn't. The Raiders offensive line has allowed the fewest quarterback pressures in the AFC and only two sacks since late September. I'm fading QB Derek Carr (OAK) against a defense that has allowed one-or-fewer touchdown passes in five of the last six games.
Sleeper: Rookie WR Hunter Renfrow (OAK) deserves flex consideration in deeper PPR formats with at least four receptions, 54 yards and a touchdown in two straight games.
DETROIT AT CHICAGO
Obvious starters: Kenny Golladay (DET), Marvin Jones (DET), David Montgomery (CHI), Allen Robinson (CHI), Bears D/ST.
Who to start: Rookie TE T.J. Hockenson (DET) faces a defense that has allowed 31 receptions, 349 yards and two touchdowns to tight ends over the past four games. QB Mitchell Trubisky (CHI) is actually a solid streaming candidate if you're in need against a secondary allowing an average of 308 yards and three touchdowns the past four games.
Who to sit: QB Matthew Stafford (DET) has only one 300-plus yard game in 10 career starts at Soldier Field and he also tossed four interceptions that day in 2011. Target share remains too inconsistent to trust WR Danny Amendola (DET), especially against a good secondary. RB J.D. McKissic (DET) is only a flex flier in the deepest PPR formats. There should be better options available to stream than the Lions D/ST on the road this week. TE Trey Burton (CHI) shouldn't be on your fantasy radar these days. WR Taylor Gabriel (CHI) remains boom-or-bust. RB Tarik Cohen (CHI) only has value in the deepest PPR formats and his target share is buckshot.
Sleeper: Rookie RB Ty Johnson (DET) faces a defense that has allowed eight touchdowns over the past five games to running backs.
BALTIMORE AT CINCINNATI
Obvious starters: Lamar Jackson (BAL), Mark Ingram (BAL), Mark Andrews (BAL), Ravens D/ST.
Who to start: My gut says WR Marquise Brown (BAL) is a flex option who pays major dividends against a porous secondary allowing the third-most yards per catch wide receivers. WR Tyler Boyd (CIN) is the proven commodity in this pass offense with double-digit targets in five of eight games until A.J. Green is fully healthy. WR Auden Tate (CIN) maintains his flex viability with six targets in six straight games (unless Green plays).
Who to sit: I'm fading WR A.J. Green (CIN) if he's active against a secondary that has only allowed one-or-fewer touchdown passes in seven of eight games. He also has a rookie quarterback under center making his debut. TE Tyler Eifert (CIN) remains touchdown-dependent. RB Joe Mixon (CIN) has only averaged 3.18 yards per carry (on 67 career carries) and scored a single touchdown in five career games against the Ravens. A robust 18 receptions over the past three games has earned WR Alex Erickson (CIN) flex consideration in deeper PPR formats (unless Green plays).
Sleeper: RB Gus Edwards (BAL) could be a sneaky flex lottery ticket in deeper standard leagues because of garbage time production against a sub-par run defense that has allowed at least one touchdown to running backs in seven of eight games.
BUFFALO AT CLEVELAND
Obvious starters: Devin Singletary (BUF), John Brown (BUF), Bills D/ST, Nick Chubb (CLE).
Who to start: QB Josh Allen (BUF) is once again a premium streaming candidate against a secondary that has allowed multiple touchdown passes in six straight games. WR Cole Beasley (BUF) deserves flex consideration with a touchdown in three straight games. WR Odell Beckham (CLE) has at least five receptions and 52 yards in six of eight games. WR Jarvis Landry (CLE) is on pace for 72 receptions and 1,110 yards. A solid pass rush and a matchup against a mistake prone quarterback make the Browns D/ST a solid streaming candidate.
Who to sit: QB Baker Mayfield (CLE) has yet to throw for multiple touchdowns in a game this season and faces a defense that has yet to allow it. RB Kareem Hunt (CLE) needs to remain benched until we see how the Browns plan to utilize him.
Sleeper: RB Frank Gore (BUF) still has flex value in standard formats if he maintains double-digit carries against a run defense allowing 4.93 yards per attempt this season.
KANSAS CITY AT TENNESSEE
Obvious starters: Tyreek Hill (KC), Travis Kelce (KC), Derrick Henry (TEN).
Who to start: It'll be hard for you to bench QB Patrick Mahomes (KC) if he's active. QB Matt Moore (KC) is a serviceable streaming candidate if Mahomes remains sidelined. WR Sammy Watkins (KC) remains in the flex conversation with 18 targets over the past two games. RB Damien Williams (KC) deserves flex consideration after his 125-yard, one touchdown performance against the Vikings. The Chiefs D/ST faces an offensive line that has allowed 38 sacks in nine games. QB Ryan Tannehill (TEN) remains a solid streaming candidate if you're in a pinch. TE Jonnu Smith (TEN) is a borderline TE1 against a defense allowing an average of six receptions per game to the position. WR Adam Humphries (TEN) remains a low-end flex option in deeper PPR formats with at least four receptions in four of five games.
Who to sit: RB LeSean McCoy (KC) seems to have fallen out of favor the past two games. WRs Demarcus Robinson (KC) and Mecole Hardman (KC) only have value in fantasy with Mahomes under center. WR Corey Davis (TEN) missed practice on Wednesday with a hip injury. I'm fading the Titans D/ST even if Mahomes sit.
Sleeper: Rookie WR A.J. Brown (TEN) has led the Titans in both receptions and targets in two of the last three games.
ATLANTA AT NEW ORLEANS
Obvious starters: Matt Ryan (ATL), Julio Jones (ATL), Austin Hooper (ATL), Drew Brees (NO), Alvin Kamara (NO), Michael Thomas (NO).
Who to start: RB Devonta Freeman (ATL) maintains RB2 value in most PPR formats. A reliable target share (at least six targets in seven of eight games) helps WR Calvin Ridley (ATL) maintain his WR3/flex value. RB Latavius Murray (NO) deserves flex consideration (but this gets bumped to RB2 if Kamara is sidelined or limited). TE Jared Cook (NO) faces a defense that has allowed four touchdowns to the position over the past four games.
Who to sit: WR Ted Ginn (NO) remains boom-or-bust.
Sleeper: The Saints D/ST faces an offense that has allowed 16 sacks, eight turnovers and two touchdowns over the past five games.
N.Y. GIANTS AT N.Y. JETS
Obvious starters: Saquon Barkley (NYG), Golden Tate (NYG), Giants D/ST, Le'Veon Bell (NYJ).
Who to start: Rookie QB Daniel Jones (NYG) is a streaming candidate against a defense that has allowed at least 279 yards and three touchdowns in each of the past two games. QB Sam Darnold (NYJ) should bounce back against a defense that has allowed at least 257 yards and three touchdowns in each of the past two games. WR Jamison Crowder (NYJ) is a WR3/flex in most PPR formats while he's on pace for 86 receptions. The Jets D/ST are a sneaky streaming candidate against an offense that has allowed 21 sacks, 12 turnovers and four touchdowns over the past five games.
Who to sit: TE Rhett Ellison (NYG) remains touchdown-dependent. I'm fading WR Robby Anderson (NYJ) with seven receptions and 86 yards over the past three games despite 18 targets. WR Demaryius Thomas (NYJ) deserves to be rostered in fantasy, but you're better off with him on your bench.
Sleeper(s): Rookie WR Darius Slayton (NYG) has a premium matchup and will likely see more targets with Evan Engram sidelined. TE Chris Herndon (NYJ) is a lottery ticket at the position if he plays with six teams on a bye this week.
ARIZONA AT TAMPA BAY
Obvious starters: David Johnson (ARI), Christian Kirk (ARI), Mike Evans (TB), Chris Godwin (TB).
Who to start: Rookie QB Kyler Murray (ARI) is a solid streaming candidate against a secondary that has allowed 18 touchdown passes over the past six games. The matchup alone makes WR Larry Fitzgerald (ARI) flex-worthy. QB Jameis Winston (TB) has at least 301 yards and multiple touchdowns in five of six games. RB Ronald Jones (TB) is an RB2 in standard/12-team formats. TE O.J. Howard (TB) is healthy against a defense that has allowed at least one touchdown in seven of nine games to the position.
Who to sit: I'm fading RB Kenyan Drake (ARI) despite his explosive debut against the 49ers, because we don't know how Johnson's return will impact his usage. Watch out for rookie WR Andy Isabella (ARI) when his target share increases. RB Peyton Barber (TB) remains touchdown-dependent.
Sleeper: The Cardinals D/ST is a sneaky streaming candidate since the Buccaneers have turned over the ball 12 times in the last three games.
MIAMI AT INDIANAPOLIS
Obvious starters: Marlon Mack (IND), Colts D/ST.
Who to start: WR DeVante Parker (MIA) deserves flex consideration with a touchdown in four of five games. QB Jacoby Brissett (IND) is a premium streaming candidate if he's active. WR Zach Pascal (IND) has at least four receptions, 72 yards or a touchdown in three of five games. TE Jack Doyle (IND) is a decent streaming candidate with at least four targets in five of six games.
Who to sit: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA) faces a defense that has allowed one-or-fewer touchdown passes in four straight games. Don't take the bait with RB Kalen Ballage (MIA). TE Eric Ebron (IND) remains touchdown-dependent.
Sleeper: TE Mike Gesicki (MIA) faces a defense that has allowed at least four receptions, 30 yards or a touchdown to the position in every game this season.
CAROLINA AT GREEN BAY
Obvious starters: Christian McCaffrey (CAR), Panthers D/ST, D.J. Moore (CAR), Aaron Rodgers (GB), Aaron Jones (GB), Davante Adams (GB).
Who to start: WR Curtis Samuel (CAR) maintains his flex potential with at least six targets in seven straight games. TE Jimmy Graham (GB) is a borderline TE1 with at least four targets in five of six games. The Packers D/ST at home is a decent streaming candidate if you're in a pinch. Rookie WR Allen Lazard (GB) has earned flex consideration in the deepest PPR formats with at least three receptions, 42 yards or a touchdown in four straight games.
Who to sit: I'm fading QB Kyle Allen (CAR) against a secondary that has allowed one-or-fewer touchdown passes in five of nine games. TE Greg Olsen (CAR) only has 11 receptions, 110 yards and zero touchdowns over the past five games. Inconsistent target share makes it hard to trust WRs Geronimo Allison (GB) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB).
Sleeper: RB Jamaal Williams (GB) deserves flex consideration with five total touchdowns over the past four games.
L.A. RAMS AT PITTSBURGH
Obvious starters: Cooper Kupp (LAR), Todd Gurley (LAR), Rams D/ST.
Who to start: TE Gerald Everett (LAR) faces a defense that has allowed at least six receptions or a touchdown to the position in five of eight games. Rookie RB Darrell Henderson (LAR) deserves flex consideration in the deepest standard formats with double-digit touches in back-to-back games. You're rolling the dice if RB James Conner (PIT) is active. WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (PIT) seems to be alternating good and bad games since Week 3, which means a good game is on deck. RB Jaylen Samuels (PIT) deserves flex consideration in most PPR formats (he's an RB2 across the board if Conner is sidelined). The Steelers D/ST has forced 22 turnovers the past seven games. TE Vance McDonald (PIT) is a borderline TE1 against a defense that has allowed an average of six receptions and 79 yards to the position over the past five games.
Who to sit: I'm fading QB Jared Goff (LAR) against a solid Steelers pass rush and improved secondary that has allowed 227-or-fewer yards in four of five games. I'm also fading WR Robert Woods (LAR) with only 12 receptions and 164 yards over the past four games. QB Mason Rudolph (PIT) faces a defense that has allowed one-or-fewer touchdown passes in six of eight games. Rookie WR Diontae Johnson (PIT) is a boom-or-bust option.
Sleeper: WR Josh Reynolds (LAR) will start again with Brandin Cooks sidelined by a concussion.
MINNESOTA AT DALLAS
Obvious starters: Dalvin Cook (MIN), Stefon Diggs (MIN), Vikings D/ST, Dak Prescott (DAL), Ezekiel Elliott (DAL), Amari Cooper (DAL).
Who to start: TE Kyle Rudolph (MIN) has at least three receptions or a touchdown in four straight games. Consistent target share (at least four targets in every game) makes TE Jason Witten (DAL) a viable option in most PPR formats. WR Michael Gallup (DAL) deserves flex consideration despite the matchup (he becomes a WR2 if Cooper is sidelined with a knee injury).
Who to sit: I'm fading QB Kirk Cousins (MIN) against a defense that has allowed one-or-fewer touchdown passes in six of eight games. We're obviously not trusting WR Adam Thielen (MIN) until he plays an entire game. It's hard to trust WR Randall Cobb (DAL) with such a low ceiling and difficult matchup.
Sleeper: The Cowboys D/ST has forced seven turnovers the past two games.
SEATTLE AT SAN FRANCISCO
Obvious starters: Russell Wilson (SEA), Tyler Lockett (SEA), Chris Carson (SEA), George Kittle (SF), Tevin Coleman (SF), 49ers D/ST.
Who to start: QB Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) is a solid streaming candidate against a suspect secondary. WR Emmanuel Sanders (SF) has 11 receptions and two touchdowns in two games since being traded to the 49ers. RB Matt Breida (SF) deserves flex consideration against a defense that has allowed multiple touchdowns to running backs in three of the last five games.
Who to sit: I'm fading WRs D.K. Metcalf (SEA) and Josh Gordon (SEA) against a secondary that has only allowed two touchdowns to wide receivers over the last five games. It's hard to recommend the Seahawks D/ST this week without an effective pass rush (only five sacks the last five games).
Sleeper: Rookie WR Deebo Samuel (SF) is a bona fide playmaker and has at least three receptions in seven of eight games.
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